Writing
Research and published work.
Papers, policy work and commentary by Ösel founder Alex Turnbull on commodity shocks, supply chains, industrial policy and the systems that connect them, published with institutions including the Australian National University, Employ America, The European Council of Foreign Relations and the Roosevelt Institute.
Selected work
- (opens in new tab)PodcastWhen Technology Outruns Commodities Money of Mine · 2026A return appearance on the mining podcast in which Turnbull argues critical-minerals stocks are trading on sentiment more than fundamentals, and covers the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption, diesel in China, electric mining trucks, data-centre efficiency, and the outlook for copper, uranium, lithium, gallium, germanium and indium. Read
- (opens in new tab)PodcastWar in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future Bloomberg Odd Lots · 2026An Odd Lots episode in which Turnbull argues that the Iran war, which is hitting East Asia hardest, will speed the region's restart of nuclear plants and cut its dependence on imported gas, and notes channel checks showing a jump in EV demand as BYD dealer inventories shrink.Read
- (opens in new tab)Thinktank NoteVan Guard: How Europe can Kick Its Global Diesel DependenceNoah Gordon, Alex Turnbull · 2026How targeted scrappage schemes can improve European refined products security.Read
22 publications shown.
2026
- (opens in new tab)When Technology Outruns Commodities Money of Mine · with Alex TurnbullPodcast
- (opens in new tab)War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future Bloomberg Odd Lots · with Alex TurnbullPodcast
- (opens in new tab)Making the Market: DOE Can Secure Our Supply Chain with Financial InnovationArnab Datta, Alex Turnbull, Alex WilliamsPolicy Paper
- (opens in new tab)Van Guard: How Europe can Kick Its Global Diesel DependenceNoah Gordon, Alex TurnbullThinktank Note
- (opens in new tab)Mongolia Looks to Fuel Russia and China by Rail Bolor Lkhaajav, Alex TurnbullArticle
2025
2024
- (opens in new tab)02Australia can save the global lithium industry from the Chinese StateAustralian Financial ReviewArticle
- (opens in new tab)Are data centres the new EVs?Money of Mine · with Alex TurnbullPodcast
- (opens in new tab)Australia can save the global lithium industry from the Chinese stateAlex TurnbullNewspaper
2023
- (opens in new tab)Oil and Politics in the Mid-TransitionTim Sahay, Kate Mackenzie · with Adam Tooze, Amy Myers Jaffe, Morgan Bazilian, William Oman, Alex TurnbullRoundtable
- (opens in new tab)Contingent Supply: The Federal Government's Interest in a Liquid Lithium BenchmarkArnab Datta, Alex TurnbullPolicy Paper
- (opens in new tab)Contingent Supply: New Benchmarks Can Define and Deepen the Lithium MarketArnab Datta, Alex Williams, Alex TurnbullPolicy Paper
- (opens in new tab)Contingent Supply: Texas Crude, Oklahoma Prices: Why Location Matters For A Spodumene ReserveArnab Datta, Alex TurnbullPolicy Paper
- (opens in new tab)Contingent Supply: Why Spodumene Reserves May Be the Key to a More Secure Lithium Supply ChainArnab Datta, Alex TurnbullPolicy Paper
- (opens in new tab)IPEF's OPEC MomentArnab Datta, Alex TurnbullEssay
2022
- (opens in new tab)Facts on the Ground: Uncertainty and information in the global energy systemAlex TurnbullEssay
- (opens in new tab)A protocol to determine the least cost supply of coal to China with an installation-level optimization modelJorrit Gosens, Alex TurnbullJournal
- (opens in new tab)China's demand for coal is set to drop fast. Australia should take noteJorrit Gosens, Frank Jotzo · with Alex TurnbullArticle
- (opens in new tab)China's decarbonization and energy security plans will reduce seaborne coal imports: Results from an installation-level modelJorrit Gosens, Alex Turnbull, Frank JotzoJournal
- (opens in new tab)China Is Changing Its Coal Use, and It Affects the Whole WorldBloomberg Odd Lots · with Alex TurnbullPodcast
2021
- (opens in new tab)10China singling out Australian coal is a sign of their influence on global energy marketsThe GuardianArticle
- (opens in new tab)An installation-level model of China's coal sector shows how its decarbonization and energy security plans will reduce overseas coal imports Jorrit Gosens, Alex Turnbull, Frank Jotzo Working Paper
A selection of published work. Views expressed in external publications are the author's own.